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Pat Piper has made a career learning something new. As a journalist in the news business, “something new” occurs every hour so he’s becoming an expert at understanding stuff he never thought about. Learning became a common word in “Future Talk: Conversations About Tomorrow” (Warner Books), the popular book he ghostwrote with Larry King as […]

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Predictions, Polls and Pundits

By on October 30, 2020 in See It Here

Yeah, we are seeing the “electoral consultant” or “2020 Presidential Analyst” or just plain “election expert” graphic on all the news/talk shows suggesting how the results on November 3rd will look Wednesday morning….or Thursday…let’s just make it November 10.

I’m turning the channel when this occurs to a Liberty Commercial or the new Toyota because those contain more facts.

Last November, 2016, we learned that polls can be wrong as President Trump surprised everyone, including himself, with an electoral win over Hillary Clinton, despite her winning the popular vote. I was in a network radio newsroom with my jaw on the floor as it was announced Trump had done it, despite all the experts.

Here’s what went wrong:

Polling is done based on demographics–what do Whites or Blacks or Age or Men or Women think about a topic. What was missed in this was education. Non-college-educated Whites voted for Trump by a margin of 72-23 percent.

Hopefully this lesson will be learned on Tuesday. Me? I’m still going to check out the cost of a new roof, even though I live in a condo.

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